- No. of pages 51
- NO. OF DATA POINTS (GRAPHS AND TABLES): 38
- FORMAT: PDF
- LICENSE: CORPORATE
- DATE OF PUBLICATION: Q1 2018
Country Report to 2022
Contents of the report:
1.0 The Basic Facts
- Macroeconomic Considerations
- Cement Market Size and past growth
- Products by type
- End users
- Vertical integration
- Distribution chain
- International trade
- Supply characteristics
- Cement plants data / map
- Regional v national
2.0 The Analysis - Market Characteristics
- Demand Considerations
- Reality Check: need, capability and funding
- Further Reality Check: per capita, Cement Economic Curve
- Supply – demand balance considerations, S-D balance and DCUF™
- International Trading Assessment Matrix (ITAM™)
- Industry Structure and Dynamics (ISD™)
- Nature of Market Participants
- Consolidation Index
- Industry Cost Structure and Dynamics including industry profitability and cost escalation forecasts
- Licence to Operate Considerations
3.0 General Considerations and Conclusions
- Supply – demand balance
- Propensity and ability to export
- Industry profitability
- License to operate
4.0 Our Ranking Tool (CBRRT™)
- Overall market attractiveness assessment
Tunisia is one of the most interesting markets in this region. The history of privatisation is interesting in itself making the country the home of several European cement producers. However, following the revolution of 2011, the country has struggled to find its way in both economic and political terms.
As a result, demand has been subdued and projections are uncertain although, if things develop well, they may prove to be conservative.
The Tunisian cement industry apart from the geopolitical events has experienced several changes recently. These may be summarised as follows:
- Algeria and Libya reduced imports. Algeria gone for ever, Libya may be available again at some point
- New capacity additions (Carthage Cement, Ciments de Bizerte and new grinding plant)
- Removal of energy subsidies
- Continuous slide of local currency putting pressure on imported fossil fuels
- Overcapacity introduced domestic price pressures
As a result, the industry has found itself in a very low profitability level.
However, the industry is of interest because there are several initiatives that might support the health of the industry going forward. These are:
- Projected demand may prove conservative
- The industry may be able to find exporting destinations
- Indication of the government that is willing to embark on a privatisation process (see on-going sale of Carthage Cement)
- Further consolidation steps may be taken as a result
The behaviour of the key stakeholders (government, lending banks to Carthage Cement and other industry players) will be pivotal for the future of the Tunisian cement industry.
Our proprietary analytical tools:
Domestic Capacity Utilisation Factor - DCUF™ - Propensity to export / import.
International Trading Assessment Matrix - ITAM™, Capability to export / import.
Capacity Concentration Balance Index (CCBI™). CCBI™ assesses the potential of each cement plant’s theoretical sales to each statistically available region of a national market, taking into account the plant’s capacity and proximity to consumption centres.
Micro-Market Attractiveness Matrix (MAM™). MAM™ examines statistically available regions for their existing and potential growth prospects.
Industry Structure and Dynamics - ISD™ - Nature of Participants, Consolidation Index, Cost Structure and Industry Profitability.
CemBR Ranking Tool - CemBRRT™ - Overall Market Attractiveness Assessment