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Country Report to 2022

Contents of the report:

1.0 The Basic Facts

  • Macroeconomic Considerations
  • Cement Market Size and past growth
  • Products by type
  • End users
  • Vertical integration
  • Distribution chain
  • International trade
  • Supply characteristics
  • Cement plants data / map
  • Regional v national

2.0 The Analysis - Market Characteristics

  • Demand Considerations
  • Reality Check: need, capability and funding
  • Further Reality Check: per capita, Cement Economic Curve
  • Supply – demand balance considerations, S-D balance and DCUF™
  • International Trading Assessment Matrix (ITAM™)
  • Industry Structure and Dynamics (ISD™)
  • Nature of Market Participants
  • Consolidation Index
  • Industry Cost Structure and Dynamics including industry profitability and cost escalation forecasts
  • Licence to Operate Considerations

3.0 General Considerations and Conclusions

  • Supply – demand balance
  • Propensity and ability to export
  • Industry profitability
  • License to operate

4.0 Our Ranking Tool (CBRRT™)

  • Overall market attractiveness assessment

Market/Industry Insights:

Egypt’s cement industry has been through some significant changes in the last five years. These included significant capacity additions whilst demand remained static, shortages in government supplied fuels compelling the industry to switch its fuel mix to internationally traded fossil fuels, removal of energy subsidies increasing the industry cost structure and significant devaluation of local currency resulting in higher cost of imported fossil fuels to name but a few.

In addition, overcapacity has led to reduced pricing impacting the industry profitability significantly. As a result, the Egyptian cement industry has lost its lustre from a few years back.

High level of fragmentation and diverse nature of market participants is a further complication in the industry. Finally, the presence of the military as a cement player is a unique characteristic.

Industry profitability is at low levels and requires immediate attention. Exporting may prove a challenging task for the industry and although demand is projected to show good growth, the risk is on the downside.

Industry consolidation and restructuring may be viewed as a compelling argument in Egypt. However, this may not be an easy task given all the divergent agendas of the market participants.

Our proprietary analytical tools: 

Domestic Capacity Utilisation Factor - DCUF™ - Propensity to export / import. 

International Trading Assessment Matrix - ITAM™, Capability to export / import. 

Capacity Concentration Balance Index (CCBI™). CCBI™ assesses the potential of each cement plant’s theoretical sales to each statistically available region of a national market, taking into account the plant’s capacity and proximity to consumption centres.

Micro-Market Attractiveness Matrix (MAM™). MAM™ examines statistically available regions for their existing and potential growth prospects.

Industry Structure and Dynamics - ISD™ - Nature of Participants, Consolidation Index, Cost Structure and Industry Profitability. 

CemBR Ranking Tool - CemBRRT™ - Overall Market Attractiveness Assessment

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